That\u2019s what HANRadio personality Rob Adams asked Jacob Meisel of swctweather.com on the web radio station\u2019s stormcast Tuesday morning. Essentially, Mr. Meisel said, forecasters relied too heavily on one weather model when they predicted a blizzard of \u201chistoric\u201d proportions. The storm\u2019s behavior was also difficult to track. \u201cWhat happened is that our most accurate model predicted the historic blizzard,\u201d he said, adding it was \u201caccurate on run after run.\u201d He was referring to the European weather model, which tends to be very accurate in the winter, he said. But there were \u201ca lot of other models,\u201d not quite as accurate, that predicted lower snowfall totals. Mr. Meisel, who offers a weather forecasting subscription service, said he looked at those other models but added \u201cit\u2019s hard to forecast six to 12 [inches] when the National Weather Service is predicting two to three feet.\u201d At 9 p.m. Monday night, he said, one model was predicting four to 35 inches for New York City, depending on small shifts of 20 to 30 miles. Those last-minute shifts, he said, put the worst bands of snow over New London and New Haven counties instead of farther west. \u201cI have never seen a span like this on a weather model,\u201d he said. The short-range weather models used for fine-tuning a storm when it is 12 to 18 hours away, were showing widely varying ranges of snowfall. Most of New England received snowfall near predicted amounts, he said, \u201cexcept for the sharp cutoff at the western edge. \u201cOur weather models were not consistent and there was no consistent way to see this final scenario. The storm\u2019s quick formation off shore was hard for the models to pick up.\u201d On Monday, a \u201cstandard Alberta clipper\u201d moved down through the continental U.S., the type of storm that usually would bring a quick one to four inches of snow. \u201cThis one dove far enough south to pick up energy from the jet stream and transfer it to a secondary low off shore,\u201d Mr. Meisel said. \u201cWeather models are notorious for being poor at handling the transfer of energy between the original low pressure center and the one offshore the energy is being transferred to. When that happens, you are at risk for something going wrong with your storm. Those are the storms where you have the massive changes in forecast.\u201d In this case, he said, the energy transfer took too long, the storm formed a little too far east, the storm didn\u2019t properly get captured in the upper atmosphere and then it turned back west and spun out to sea, cutting down totals on the western edge. \u201cWe were probably an hour and a half away from the energy transfer for the storm to clobber southwest Connecticut,\u201d he said. His only criticism was that forecasters did not emphasize the proper level of confidence \u2014 or lack of confidence \u2014 their predictions carried. Looking to the short-term future, Mr. Meisel said we could see an Alberta clipper swinging through Thursday to Friday bringing one to three inches of snow. A storm Sunday into Monday could bring anywhere from three to six or four to eight inches, he said, but he did not have a lot of confidence in that prediction since the storm is far enough away things could change. You can listen to HANRadio at hanradio.com.