It is forecast to intensify to Hurricane status Friday morning but remain offshore. “There is uncertainty with the track of this system; however, official track forecasts suggests a turn to the north toward the Carolina coastline before curving northeast off the Mid-Atlantic well-southeast of the Long Island,” Ross Dickman, a National Weather Service meteorologist said Tuesday.
Meanwhile, a cold front is expected to approach Connecticut by mid-week (Wednesday-Friday) at the same time Tropical Storm Arthur is re-curving, according to the weather service. Tropical moisture is expected stream northward and interact with the cold front, according to forecasts. This increases the potential threat for heavy rainfall mainly Thursday afternoon into early Friday.
The rip current risk will be high throughout most of the July 4th holiday weekend based on the track of the system.
Before the weekend, thunderstorms are in the forecast for southwestern Connecticut on Wednesday afternoon, July 2, with some localized flash flooding, according to the weather service.
On Thursday, rain is could become heavy at times with more flash flooding, according to the weather service’s hazardous weather outlook.
On Independence Day, Friday, showers are likely and possibly a thunderstorm before noon, then a chance of showers, according to the weather service. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain on Friday. It is expected to be mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. West wind seven to nine mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Up to a half of an inch possible.